In July, stainless steel imports continued to decrease by 9.35% MoM, while exports simultaneously fell by 8.6% MoM [SMM Analysis]

Imports: According to SMM statistics, China's stainless steel imports in July 2024 were 125,200 mt, down approximately 9.35% MoM and up about 1.35% YoY. In June, the total stainless steel imports from Indonesia were about 71,000 mt (excluding stainless steel scrap), down approximately 33.88% YoY and 34.30% MoM. By form, the imports of plates, coils, and narrow strips in July saw a significant decline of about 28,000 mt compared to June, down 33.37% MoM. The main reason was the shutdown of Yongwang in Indonesia for maintenance, which led to a sharp drop in the shipments of plates and coils to the domestic market. However, with Yongwang resuming production in August and the profitability of Indonesian NPI stainless steel production lines recovering, imports are expected to increase in August.

Exports: According to SMM statistics, China's total stainless steel exports in July 2024 were 509,300 mt, down 8.6% MoM. Although there was a certain degree of decline in overall stainless steel in July, it remained at a relatively high level above 500,000 mt, with a YoY increase of 29.59%. The cumulative exports increased by 26.51% YoY. By form, all types of products saw a noticeable decrease, with plates, coils, narrow strips, and profiles down 8%-10% MoM, and pipes down 13.98%, the largest decline. The finished products market was relatively stable, with a decrease of only 5.75%. The main reason is that overseas stainless steel mills, such as the four major steel mills in Europe, have started to resume production, reducing their dependence on Chinese stainless steel. Additionally, it is currently the summer break in Europe, leading to lower operating rates of downstream enterprises and a decline in overall stainless steel demand. Moreover, the current anti-dumping policies on stainless steel overseas are more stringent on less processed products like plates and coils, while relatively lenient on finished products. By country, the decline in July was most significant in Asia, with the largest reduction in exports to India, down about 11,600 mt or 23% MoM. Other Asian countries like Japan saw a decrease of about 3,400 mt or 25% MoM, while exports to Thailand and Pakistan fell by 22% and 34% MoM, respectively. Exports to Europe decreased by 19% MoM, and to the US by 8%. Overall, the anti-dumping policies on stainless steel have a direct impact on China's overseas stainless steel trade. The current reduction is mainly due to the traditional off-season brought by the high-temperature season. After the off-season ends, the impact of anti-dumping policies will still exist, and stainless steel exports are expected to continue to decline in August.